Adani Green Q1 FY27 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: ADANIGREEN)

AGEL surpasses 20 GW renewable capacity, commissions 1.9 GWh BESS, and ties up merchant power with AESL to de-risk, while guiding 5 GW RE addition and 10+ GWh BESS in FY27.

27 Jul 2026 · Analysis by Alpha Inflection

The take

Q1FY27 Revenue from power supply ₹4,280 Cr ( +29% YoY ) . New guidance — FY27 greenfield re capacity addition 5 GW . New story: De-risking merchant exposure via AESL long-term… .

Results

Revenue from power supply ₹4,280 Cr +29% YoY; EBITDA ₹4,122 Cr +33% YoY (margin 94%); energy sales 13.7 BU +30% YoY; CapEx ₹8,800 Cr +41% YoY.

Financial highlights

Guidance

FY27 targets: 5 GW greenfield RE capacity addition, 10+ GWh cumulative BESS, ₹42,000 Cr CapEx, and ₹21,000 Cr run-rate EBITDA by year-end.

What management committed to

• Adani Green is on track to add 5 GW of greenfield capacity in [FY27]. — 5 GW, FY27
• [Adani Green] will achieve [its] 10-plus GW-hour cumulative BESS target this year. — 10-plus GW-hour, FY27
• [Adani Green] is on schedule to commission [its] maiden 500 MW pump storage project at Chitravathi, Andhra Pradesh, in this financial year. — 500 MW, FY27
• By the end of this calendar year, there should not be any curtailment, at least from Khavda, for all the capacities [Adani Green] has installed. — Q3FY27
• FY27 CapEx guidance is about INR42,000 crores. — INR42,000 crores, FY27
• Run-rate EBITDA for [the] operational portfolio is expected to reach INR21,000 crore by FY27 end. — INR21,000 crore, FY27
• BESS EBITDA contribution is expected in the range of INR25 lakh to INR30 lakh per MW-hour based on the capitalization that takes place over the next nine months of [FY27]. — INR25 lakh to INR30 lakh per MW-hour, FY27
• [Adani Green] would like to do about 50 GW-hour of batteries till FY30. — 50 GW-hour, FY30

Key themes

De-risking merchant capacity via AESL tie-up and BESS ramp-up

How the narrative shifted

• De-risking merchant exposure via AESL long-term contracts: Management frames the shift as insulating AGEL from market volatility and securing predictable long-term returns, with arm's-length SECI-style contracts providing stability.
• Battery storage ramp-up as new growth engine: BESS execution is accelerating, targeting 10+ GWh this year and 50 GWh by FY30, with attractive arbitrage economics and eventual separate segment reporting.
• Execution discipline and operational excellence: Having surpassed 20 GW, AGEL emphasises technology, digitisation, and predictive maintenance to maximise asset availability and deliver industry‑leading operational performance.
• Transmission curtailment headwinds abating: Current 5‑7% EBITDA drag from curtailment is expected to dissipate by end‑CY26 as 7 GW of additional evacuation capacity comes online, especially benefiting the Khavda cluster.
• Evaluating future gigascale sites: Management is actively evaluating very large sites to replicate the Khavda model, but specific scale and timelines remain uncommitted pending public disclosures.
• India’s renewable energy demand trajectory intact: Management cites India reaching 283 GW non‑fossil capacity and being on track for 500 GW by 2030, with rising power demand supporting both utility and distributed generation.

Operational commentary

• Tied up merchant solar, wind, and battery capacity with Adani Energy Solutions (AESL) on arm's-length, 25‑year fixed contracts for RE (15 years for BESS) mirroring SECI PPA terms, de‑risking market exposure and targeting predictable returns.
• Commissioned 1.9 GWh of BESS at Khavda, bringing cumulative installed storage to 3.5 GWh; on-track for 10+ GWh by FY27-end and a 50 GWh ambition by FY30.
• Surpassed 20 GW installed renewable capacity, India’s largest greenfield addition, enabled by disciplined execution and technology adoption.
• Curtailment impact quantified at 5–7% of EBITDA currently, with expectation of zero curtailment from Khavda by end of calendar year 2026 as additional 7 GW transmission capacity comes online.
• On schedule to commission maiden 500 MW pumped storage project at Chitravathi, Andhra Pradesh, within FY27.
• Evaluating additional very large gigawatt‑scale sites to replicate Khavda’s success; no timeline or scale commitment yet.
• Energy sales rose 30% YoY to 13.7 billion units, driven by 4.3 GW capacity addition and strong operations; partial PPA delivery (31% of annual requirement) in Q1 in line with plan.
• Early commissioning strategy continues where PPAs exist, capturing ISTS/ALMM waiver benefits; new projects aligned with transmission build‑out timelines for cost optimisation.

Analyst Q&A

• Q. Curtailment impact quantification and timeline for resolution

  Curtailment impact currently in the range of 5-7% of EBITDA; by the end of this calendar year, we expect no curtailment at least from Khavda as more transmission lines come online.

• Q. Rationale behind merchant capacity being contracted to AESL instead of selling directly to C&I customers

  Management explained the shift to de-risk from market vagaries, concentrate on project execution and operational excellence, and lock in predictable long‑term returns at arm's-length SECI‑style contracts.

• Q. Per-unit price (₹/kWh) at which solar, wind, and battery capacity was tied up with AESL

  CFO stated, “We cannot do. We both are listed entities, and there is an arm's length involved, Audit Committee involved. So, it is at a benchmark rate.” No specific price disclosed.

• Q. BESS commissioning phasing over the quarters and second‑cycle economics

  CEO‑Battery stated projects are in advanced construction but quarterly guidance is not being given due to deep commissioning/stabilisation phases; cycle economics data to mature by next call.

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