Confidence Petro Q1 FY27 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: CONFIPET)
Confidence Petroleum delivered record Q1FY27 revenue of ₹2,408 Cr and PAT of ₹62.60 Cr, benefiting from West Asia supply disruptions and higher LPG prices, while targeting 10-15% QoQ growth and network expansion across Auto LPG and CNG.
Result quality: watch — Margin pressure. Management sentiment: optimistic.
The take
Q1FY27 Revenue from Operations ₹2408 Cr ( +117% YoY ) . New guidance — Q2FY27 quarter-on-quarter financial gr… 10% to 15% . New story: Supply Disruption Market Share Gains .
Results
Revenue reached ₹2,408 Cr (+117% YoY, +98% QoQ); EBITDA rose to ₹147 Cr (+64% YoY); PAT more than tripled to ₹62.60 Cr (+205% YoY).
Financial highlights
| Metric | Value | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Operations | ₹2408 Cr | +117% | yoy · Q1FY27 |
| Revenue from Operations | ₹2408 Cr | +98% | qoq · Q1FY27 |
| EBITDA | ₹147 Cr | +64% | yoy · Q1FY27 |
| EBITDA | ₹147 Cr | +45% | qoq · Q1FY27 |
| Profit After Tax | ₹62.60 Cr | +205% | yoy · Q1FY27 |
| Profit After Tax | ₹62.60 Cr | +82% | qoq · Q1FY27 |
Guidance
Management guided for 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and PAT in coming quarters, alongside expanding the Auto LPG network to 500 stations and scaling CNG stations.
What management committed to
- [Confidence Petroleum] targets to increase revenue and PAT by 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter in coming quarters. — 10% to 15%, Q2FY27
- [Confidence Petroleum] targets to add 75 Auto LPG stations in FY27 and 100 stations in FY28, expanding the network from 315 to 500 stations. — 500 stations (75 in FY27, 100 in FY28), FY28
- [Confidence Petroleum] plans to operationalize an additional 50 CNG stations in Bangalore to reach 100 stations. — 100 stations, FY27
- [Confidence Petroleum] will start deliveries and operations from the Type 4 high-pressure cylinder manufacturing plant in Butibori within 1 to 2 months. — 1 to 2 months, Q2FY27
- [Confidence Petroleum] is evaluating opportunities to establish small coastal LPG storage terminals for backward integration. — under talk / future
Key themes
Volume surge from supply disruptions and retail network expansion
How the narrative shifted
- Supply Disruption Market Share Gains: Company leveraged its agile sourcing network across North America and Africa during Middle East disruptions to win long-term industrial and HoReCa contracts from constrained PSUs.
- ALDS and CNG Retail Expansion: Expanding high-margin Auto LPG stations (sub-18 month payback) toward a 500-station target and doubling CNG retail network in Bangalore.
- LPG Price Pass-Through and Margin Dynamics: Elevated global LPG prices expanded headline revenues while percentage margins appeared lower, but absolute unit margins and EBITDA remained intact and expanding.
- Backward Integration and Asset Utilization: Focusing on coastal storage terminals, bottling capacity, and launching Type 4 cylinders to improve margins across the supply chain.
Operational commentary
- Capitalized on West Asia geopolitical supply constraints by diversifying LPG sourcing to North America and Africa, capturing market share as PSUs faced constraints.
- Network expanded to over 68 LPG bottling/blending plants, 478+ road tankers, 3,150+ dealers, 3,400+ HoReCa accounts, and ~300 industrial customers.
- Auto LPG retail footprint stands at 315+ operational stations, with payback periods under 18 months per ALDS unit.
- CNG retailing operational count crossed 50 stations in Bangalore delivering ~3 lakh kg/day (6,000-6,200 kg/day per station), with plans to double station count to 100.
- Type 4 high-pressure composite cylinder manufacturing plant at Butibori (Nagpur) completed capex and machinery installation; awaiting order intake to begin deliveries.
- Established a 100% owned subsidiary in Dubai to facilitate international LPG trading and import operations.
Analyst Q&A
Q. What is the status, customer target, and timeline for the Type 4 high-pressure cylinder plant at Butibori?
Capex and machinery installation are fully completed; plant is waiting for the order book to finalize and deliveries are expected to start within 1 to 2 months for CGD players and automotive OEMs.
Q. Can management provide the segmental revenue and EBITDA margin breakup between Auto LPG, Bulk, and Packed LPG?
Requested the analyst to send an email for the detailed segmental revenue and margin bifurcation.
Q. What is the update on the Income Tax search conducted in October 2025 and potential tax liabilities?
The search was closed within 7 days; assessment is ongoing with no final tax demand received, and management expects no material tax liability.
Q. Why did strategic investor BW LPG exit its 8.5% equity stake?
BW LPG exited via the secondary market to refocus on their core shipping operations, which has no operational or financial impact on Confidence Petroleum.
Q. What was the total capex for FY26 and current LPG import volume per month?
Management stated they need to check and revert via email with the exact FY26 capex and monthly import run-rates.
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