Guj Inds. Power Q4 FY26 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: GIPCL)

GIPCL guides for ₹950–1,000 Cr consolidated EBITDA once the full 1,100 MW Khavda solar park is operational, with the 600 MW phase already running at 33.24% CUF and the 500 MW phase to be commissioned in phases post-monsoon FY27.

15 Jul 2026 · Analysis by Alpha Inflection

The take

FY26 Revenue ₹1,490 Cr . New guidance — FY27 600 mw khavda solar revenue ₹420 Cr . New story: Khavda solar ramp-up transforms earnings .

Results

FY26 revenue ≈ ₹1,490 Cr (thermal ₹1,103 Cr, Khavda ₹111 Cr); solar EBITDA ₹332 Cr; PBT ₹244 Cr boosted by a one-time tax credit of ~₹260 Cr; 600 MW Khavda commissioned in Dec’25, now achieving 33% CUF.

Financial highlights

Guidance

Consolidated EBITDA expected to reach ₹940–1,000 Cr after a full year of operations for the entire 1,100 MW Khavda solar capacity; 500 MW to be commissioned in phases starting post-monsoon FY27, with full capacity by end-FY27.

What management committed to

• 600 MW Khavda solar plant will generate revenue of approximately ₹420 crores in FY26-27. — ₹420 crores, FY27
• EBITDA from the 600 MW Khavda solar asset will be around ₹350–360 crores in FY26-27. — ₹350–360 crores, FY27
• The remaining 500 MW Khavda solar capacity will be commissioned in phases post-monsoon 2026, with full capacity by end of FY26-27. — 500 MW, FY27
• Once all 1,100 MW of Khavda solar is commissioned and operates for a full year, consolidated EBITDA will reach ₹950–1,000 crores. — ₹950–1,000 crores, FY28
• Peak consolidated debt, including the 750 MW thermal expansion, will be around ₹6,000–6,500 crores. — ₹6,000–6,500 crores, over the capex cycle
• The 750 MW lignite-based thermal power station (3×250 MW) will be placed on order by the end of the current financial year (FY26-27) with commissioning by 2032-33. — 750 MW, FY33
• Revenue from Khavda solar park O&M will be around ₹55–60 crores per annum at peak, with net earnings of ₹20–25 crores. — ₹55–60 crores, at peak (during 25-year PPA life)
• The Baroda BESS project (20 MW/120 MWh) will be fully operational within one year with capex of ₹250–300 crores and a tariff of about ₹6 per unit. — ₹250–300 crores, Q2FY28
• Gas-based power stations (310 MW) will likely be hived off in the next couple of years. — FY28

Key themes

Solar scale-up re-rating lignite utility.

How the narrative shifted

• Khavda solar ramp-up transforms earnings: Management positions the 1,100 MW Khavda project as the key driver to quadruple EBITDA, with PPA and full evacuation already secured for Phase-I.
• Lignite thermal base-load expansion: The 750 MW lignite expansion under cost-plus PPA provides long-term earnings visibility; lignite fuel is fully tied up, and the tender is progressing.
• Asset optimisation: gas-to-BESS and park developer: Non-burning gas assets are being repurposed for battery storage, and the Khavda park developer role generates low-risk O&M income.
• Debt peak manageable, internal accruals sufficient: Management asserts that cash flow from Khavda will service solar debt, and peak debt including thermal capex will stay at ~₹6,000–6,500 Cr, with equity options open.
• Improved investor communication: Acknowledging demand, management commits to quarterly calls, presentation publishing, and possible PLF data on exchanges.
• Gujarat demand resilience & merit order advantage: Management cites robust industrial growth in Gujarat, no supply-demand mismatch, and GIPCL’s top position in the merit order, insulating it from curtailment.

Operational commentary

• Khavda 600 MW solar: fully commissioned Dec’25, full power evacuation granted Nov’25, no curtailment, CUF 33.24% in Q1FY27.
• 500 MW Khavda solar: advanced stage; commissioning in phases post-monsoon FY27 (first 200 MW, then 200 MW, 100 MW over subsequent months) subject to CTUIL evacuation line readiness, expected by end-Jul’27.
• Baroda gas plant site: converting to BESS. 20 MW/120 MWh BESS approved by GUVNL, tender issued; expected capex ₹250–300 Cr, operational in ~1 year. Second BESS of 30 MW/160 MWh planned.
• Lignite thermal expansion: 3×250 MW (750 MW) under Section 62 cost-plus PPA with GUVNL; tender floated, order placement targeted by end-FY27, commissioning over 3–4 years (FY32–33).
• Fuel security: lignite availability in the region sufficient for the expanded 750 MW plus existing 500 MW for the full PPA life.
• Khavda solar park developer: 2,375 MW park – 1,100 MW own generation, balance allocated to Coal India, SJVN, SAEL; GIPCL earns O&M revenue (~₹55–60 Cr per annum at peak, net ~₹20–25 Cr).
• Additional solar potential: 200 MW can be accommodated on available land within the Khavda park through land optimization; no firm timeline.
• Thermal stations SLPP 1 & 2: PLF >75–80%, no off-take/evacuation issues; positioned top of merit order in South Gujarat.
• Gas-based stations (310 MW): not expected to revive given geopolitics; management considering hiving off the assets in the next couple of years.
• Wind and existing solar (262 MW + 112 MW) largely debt-free; debt concentrated in Khavda assets.

Analyst Q&A

• Q. Why was Khavda CUF only 23% in Mar’26 quarter (as per website) when 33% is now claimed?

  Explained that the Mar’26 quarter was the teething phase after phased commissioning in Dec’25; all issues resolved, and current Q1FY27 CUF is 33.24%.

• Q. Request for detailed debt repayment schedule for ₹4,500 Cr solar debt

  Stated he does not remember the exact figures/percentages, only that it is step-up over 5-year blocks.

• Q. How will the equity component (~₹1,200 Cr) for the ₹6,000 Cr thermal capex be funded?

  Will evaluate internal accruals over 5 years, promoter infusion, or market dilution; no firm plan yet.

• Q. Clarification on confusion about depreciation/interest vs EBITDA leading to negligible PBT in FY27

  Clarified that the high depreciation/interest numbers are for FY28 after full 1,100 MW commissioning; FY27 will have lower charges and healthy PBT.

• Q. Can PLF data be published on stock exchange websites for broader investor access?

  Will look into it and try to publish from next quarter.

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