Modi's Navnirman Q1 FY27 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: MODIS)
Modis Navnirman Q1 FY27 revenue rose 27.9% YoY to ₹58.26 Cr, but EBITDA margin fell to ~19.8% on war-related cost pressure; management guided upcoming project GDV at about ₹800 Cr.
Result quality: watch — Margin pressure. Management sentiment: optimistic.
The take
Q1FY27 Revenue from operations ₹58.26 Cr ( +27.92% YoY ) . New guidance — upcoming project pipeline gdv upwards of ₹800 Cr . New story: Mumbai redevelopment asset-light model .
Results
Revenue from operations grew 27.92% YoY to ₹58.26 Cr, EBITDA rose 14.25% YoY to ₹11.65 Cr, PAT rose 25.81% YoY to ₹8.54 Cr, and basic EPS was ₹4.36.
Financial highlights
| Metric | Value | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | ₹58.26 Cr | +27.92% | yoy · Q1FY27 · vs ₹45.54 Cr in Q1FY26; also +13.15% QoQ |
| EBITDA | ₹11.65 Cr | +14.25% | yoy · Q1FY27 · vs ₹10.20 Cr in Q1FY26 |
| Profit after tax | ₹8.54 Cr | +25.81% | yoy · Q1FY27 · vs ₹6.79 Cr in Q1FY26 |
| Basic EPS | ₹4.36 | yoy · Q1FY27 · Q1FY26 EPS was ₹3.47 | |
| Area sold | 44,000 sq ft | none · Q1FY27 · Operational metric for Q1FY27 | |
| EBITDA margin | ~19.8% | −from ~22.3% in Q1FY26 | yoy · Q1FY27 · Management attributed the decline to war-related material and labour cost pressure |
Guidance
Management expects 2-3 new redevelopment project wins in FY27 and upcoming projects with aggregate GDV of over ₹800 Cr to start through FY27 while maintaining 19-20% margins.
What management committed to
- Modis Navnirman expects to add two to three new redevelopment projects in FY27, from [the tender stages where Modis Navnirman is in the top-three category], though the exact number cannot be promised because [redevelopment project awards] are tender-dependent. — two to three, FY27
- Rashmi Paradise will start in Q2 FY27; Rashmi Gold and Sheetal are expected to start in Q3 FY27; Khar is expected to start in Q4 FY27; Govind Dalvi is on hold due a government stay in the surrounding area. — FY27
- The aggregate GDV of the [upcoming pipeline] is upwards of ₹800 crores. — upwards of ₹800 crores, upcoming pipeline
- Rashmi Square and Rashmi Signature are expected to receive OC and be handed over around Q3 FY27. — Q3FY27
- Project-level healthy margins of around 20% to 30% should be expected in every project. — 20% to 30%, every project
- Management expects EBITDA margin to get back on track in Q2 FY27 after the Q1 FY27 war-related hit; no major differences are expected. — Q2FY27
- Modis Navnirman will stay around Mumbai only for now and will not expand materially elsewhere in Maharashtra as of now, though it remains open to other Indian cities later. — as of now
- Overall project margins in [Rashmi Square and Rashmi Signature] over a two to two-and-a-half-year timeline will not be majorly hit despite war-time procurement. — two to two-and-a-half years
Key themes
Trust-led Mumbai redevelopment expansion
How the narrative shifted
- Mumbai redevelopment asset-light model: Management positions society-partnered redevelopment as a low land-cost, capital-efficient model focused on execution rather than land banks.
- Geographic expansion within Mumbai: Company is expanding from western suburbs into Khar and Santacruz while evaluating Ghatkopar and Parle, staying Mumbai-focused.
- War-driven cost and margin pressure: Management blames Q1 margin compression on war-related material and labour panic buying and says costs have now stabilized.
- Mumbai residential demand resilience: Management argues Mumbai demand will persist despite supply pressure from MHADA and SRA land clarity.
- Timely delivery as brand trust: Management prioritizes word-of-mouth and delivery over advertising, using slab-level execution updates to demonstrate discipline.
- Upcoming project pipeline conversion: Five upcoming projects with about ₹800 Cr GDV are scheduled to start through FY27, though one is held by government clearance.
- Undefined capital leverage framework: Management has no articulated leverage ceiling or capital-employed plan for larger redevelopment projects as the company scales.
Operational commentary
- Portfolio expansion: secured Neel Kiran Society in Santacruz West during Q1FY27; portfolio now at 6 ongoing projects, 14 completed projects, and 5 upcoming projects across Mumbai.
- Upcoming pipeline: Rashmi Paradise expected to start in Q2FY27, Rashmi Gold and Sheetal in Q3FY27, Khar in Q4FY27; Govind Dalvi is on hold due a government stay in the surrounding area; aggregate upcoming project GDV is about ₹800 Cr.
- Project-level sales status: Rashmi Square ~80% sold, Rashmi Signature ~50% sold and later pegged at 63-70% booked, Rashmi Delight ~40%, Rashmi Manorath ~20-25%; Rashmi Icon and Rashmi Avenue have just started and are not yet heavily sold.
- Execution milestones: Rashmi Square completed 22 slabs, Rashmi Signature completed its 20th slab, Rashmi Delight completed its 14th slab, and Rashmi Manorath completed its 13th slab; Rashmi Icon and Rashmi Avenue are at plinth stage.
- Revenue drivers: Rashmi Celestia completed in the previous quarter, creating ready-to-move inventory; Rashmi Square and Rashmi Signature are nearing closing stages and expected to receive OC around Q3FY27.
- Geographic expansion: expanded into Khar/Santacruz and evaluating Parle and Ghatkopar; management says it will stay around Mumbai for now and not expand materially elsewhere in Maharashtra.
Analyst Q&A
Q. How many new projects do you expect to add during FY27?
Cannot promise a number due tender timelines, but the company is in the top-three category for two to three development stages and expects those plus additional tenders.
Q. Are you seeing changes in pricing trends across your key micro-markets?
No; pricing trends are similar and depend on the micro-market and project specifics.
Q. How is demand shaping up despite the residential supply ramp-up?
Supply has increased after government clarity on MHADA and SRA lands, but demand will not dry up because Mumbai is the financial capital.
Q. Will you expand into new markets or remain focused on western Mumbai suburbs?
Expanding within Mumbai: entered Khar, in tender processes in Parle, discussions for Ghatkopar; no other city expansion as of now.
Q. How much of the Q1 margin decline was project mix versus construction cost pressure, and where should sustainable margins normalize?
The major hit was war-related material and labour cost; that has now stabilized and this quarter should get back on track.
Q. What leverage ceiling will management maintain as larger redevelopment projects scale?
We have not thought anything because every project comes with different economics, so it cannot be planned beforehand.
Q. What revenue and profitability potential is embedded in the under-construction and upcoming pipeline over 2-3 years?
Upcoming project GDV is about ₹800 Cr and, if the company maintains 19-20% margins, profitability should be on those lines.
Q. What is the current booking and sales status of Rashmi Square and Rashmi Signature?
Rashmi Square is around 80% booked and Rashmi Signature is probably 63-70%, around 65% booked.
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