T R I L Q1 FY27 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: TARIL)

TARIL Q1FY27 revenue up 10% YoY but impacted by Changodar expansion; order inflow surges 218% YoY to INR2,114 Cr, including a PGCIL Ultra Mega Order of INR1,000+ Cr; management guides 25% FY27 revenue growth with 16% standalone EBITDA margin.

25 Jul 2026 · Analysis by Alpha Inflection

The take

Q1FY27 Revenue (Consolidated) ₹572 Cr ( +10% YoY ) . New guidance — FY27 fy27 revenue growth 25% . New story: Backward integration as moat .

Results

Consolidated revenue INR572 Cr (+10% YoY); consolidated EBITDA margin 19.2%; unexecuted order book INR6,630 Cr (+26% YoY); quarterly order inflow INR2,114 Cr (+218% YoY), including a single-bid PGCIL order above INR1,000 Cr and export order from USA INR150 Cr.

Financial highlights

Guidance

FY27 guidance: 25% revenue growth, standalone EBITDA margin of 16% (including other income), PAT margin of 9–10%; export share capped at 10–15% of revenue.

What management committed to

• [TARIL] targets 25% revenue growth in FY27. — 25%, FY27
• [TARIL] targets standalone EBITDA margin of 16% in FY27, including other income. — 16%, FY27
• [TARIL] targets standalone PAT margin of 9% to 10% in FY27. — 9% to 10%, FY27
• [TARIL] expects order inflow growth of about 30% in both domestic and export markets in FY27. — about 30%, FY27
• [TARIL] will not allow export revenue share to exceed 15% of total revenue. — not beyond 15%, ongoing
• [TARIL] expects the backward integration program to add 200–300 basis points to EBITDA margins, starting from FY28 as facilities come online. — 200 basis points to 300 basis points, FY28
• [TARIL] will commission the CTC facility (Phase I, 8,000 MTPA) by Q2FY27. — Q2FY27
• [TARIL] will commission the Pressboard & insulation facility (Phase I, 5,000 MTPA) by Q3FY27. — Q3FY27
• [TARIL] will commission the RIP bushings facility (Phase I, 3,000 units per annum) by Q4FY27. — Q4FY27
• [TARIL] will commission the fabrication facility (Phase I, 25,000 MTPA) by Q1FY28. — Q1FY28
• [TARIL] expects the Changodar plant expansion to be completed by August 2026, after which utilization will improve and normalize from Q3FY27. — Q2FY27
• [TARIL] targets net working capital days to reduce to 120–130 days on average. — 120 days to 130 days, ongoing

Key themes

Order book surge and backward-integration-driven margin expansion

How the narrative shifted

• Backward integration as moat: Management positions captive CTC, pressboard, bushings, and fabrication as a structural supply-chain advantage that will improve margins, reduce lead times, and insulate against global component shortages.
• Order book super-cycle: Strong demand from Indian power transmission, data centers, railways, and renewables is reflected in a INR6,630 Cr order book and a INR23,000 Cr inquiry pipeline; win-rate of 10–15% implies sustained high inflow.
• Execution normalization post capex: Temporary capacity disruption at Changodar and low Moraiya utilization are framed as transitory, with a clear recovery path from Q3FY27 as expansion completes and raw material buffers kick in.
• Geopolitical risk hedging via inventory: Management acknowledges geopolitical uncertainty and has pre-built raw material inventory until December 2026, linking high working capital to a deliberate hedge rather than operational inefficiency.
• Export discipline and cap: Export share capped at 10–15% to balance margin profiles and domestic commitments; USA remains the primary export market with a track record of 765 kV supplies.
• Margin progression via integration and scale: FY27 standalone margin guidance at 16%, with an additional 200–300 bps uplift expected from FY28 as backward integration facilities ramp up, signaling a multi-year margin improvement story.

Operational commentary

• Ultra Mega Order from PGCIL exceeding INR1,000 Cr for transformers of various ratings, execution within 30 months – single-bid exception to typical 18–24 month timelines.
• Quarterly order inflow INR2,114 Cr (+218% YoY), including GETCO INR228 Cr, RRVPNL INR175 Cr, and export order from USA INR150 Cr.
• Unexecuted order book INR6,630 Cr (+26% YoY), providing revenue visibility for next 18–24 months.
• Changodar plant expansion caused temporary low utilization; targeted commissioning by Aug-26 and normalization from Q3FY27; revenue growth to pick up from Q3.
• Backward integration projects on track: CTC facility (8,000 MTPA Phase I) Q2FY27, Pressboard & insulation Q3FY27, RIP bushings (3,000 units) Q4FY27, fabrication (25,000 MTPA) Q1FY28; CRGO processing already operational.
• Moraiya plant expansion on course for Q3 2027; current manufacturing capacity >75,000 MVA across plants, supporting INR5,000–6,000 Cr annual revenue potential.
• HVDC repair work to be completed in ~9 months, post which PGCIL will empanel for trial order; design based on hybrid systems.
• Appointed Ernst & Young to strengthen IR; management emphasized commitment to specific, achievable guidance.

Analyst Q&A

• Q. FY28 revenue and EBITDA margin guidance

  We'll get to it when we get there. So Q4, we will give you a clear guideline on FY28.

• Q. How does 25% growth reconcile with $1 billion revenue target?

  Clarified that $1 billion target has been reset to INR8,000 Cr by FY29 due to rupee depreciation; existing capacity can achieve INR5,000–6,000 Cr plus backward integration third-party sales of INR800–1,000 Cr.

• Q. Breakdown of power transformer order book by rating class

  Order book is fairly spread across 66 kV to 765 kV; did not provide percentage split.

• Q. Reason for Moraiya plant utilization at only 57% when Changodar disruption is separate

  Attributed to geopolitical constraints on raw material but stated inventory is protected until Dec-26, with improvement expected from Q2FY27.

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