Adani Green Q2 FY27 Earnings Call — Analysis (NSE: ADANIGREEN)
Adani Green crossed 20.8 GW operational capacity with Q2 power supply EBITDA rising 51% YoY to ₹3,835 Cr, while accelerating BESS to mitigate Khavda evacuation delays.
Result quality: stable — Steady quarter. Management sentiment: optimistic.
The take
Q2FY27 Revenue from Power Supply ₹4,019 Cr ( +45% YoY ) . Guidance raised — FY30 leverage ratio trajectory 5.6x -> 4.5-5x -> <4x . New story: De-risking merchant exposure via AESL long-term… .
Results
Q2 FY27 power supply revenue grew 45% YoY to ₹4,019 Cr and power supply EBITDA increased 51% YoY to ₹3,835 Cr with a 92% margin.
Financial highlights
| Metric | Value | Change | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Power Supply | ₹4,019 Cr | +45% | yoy · Q2FY27 |
| EBITDA from Power Supply | ₹3,835 Cr | +51% | yoy · Q2FY27 |
| EBITDA Margin (Power Supply) | 92% | none · Q2FY27 · Power supply business | |
| Revenue from Power Supply | ₹8,299 Cr | +36% | yoy · H1FY27 |
| EBITDA from Power Supply | ₹7,957 Cr | +41% | yoy · H1FY27 |
| Total EBITDA | ₹8,276 Cr | none · H1FY27 · Includes non-power EBITDA | |
| Operational Renewable Capacity | 20.8 GW | +24% | yoy · Q2FY27 · Sep-2026 |
| Operational Battery Storage Capacity | 6.6 GWh | point_in_time · Q2FY27 · Sep-2026 |
Guidance
Management expects to exceed 10 GWh of BESS installations and achieve 4.5–5.0 GW total RE additions in FY27, backed by a ₹2.4 lakh crore capex plan through FY30.
What management committed to
- [Adani Green] is in the process of tying up the balance battery storage capacity recently commissioned [~3.1 GWh of the 6.6 GWh total] under long-term PPAs with AA+ rated counterparties, consistent with its 13-14% ROA threshold. — 3.5 GWh tied up, balance being tied up, FY27
- [Adani Green's] net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio will stay near the current ~5.6x level until FY28/29, then contract to 4.5-5x by FY30, reflecting the transition to a larger operating cash flow base. — 5.6x -> 4.5-5x -> <4x, FY30
- [Adani Green's] overall project borrowing rate will remain around the current 8.9% level, buffered by 72% fixed-rate debt and expected further rating upgrades as assets mature. — ~8.9%, FY27/FY28
- Curtailment impact on [Adani Green's] EBITDA will be materially lower in the second half of FY27 compared to the first half, driven by the accelerated deployment of battery storage [which acts as virtual transmission] at Khavda. — materially lower than H1 FY27 (~INR 724 Cr), Q3/Q4 FY27
Key themes
Storage expansion mitigating transmission curtailment
How the narrative shifted
- De-risking merchant exposure via AESL long-term contracts: No reframing; the conviction has deepened with explicit linkage to capital allocation and lender risk removal.
- Battery storage ramp-up as new growth engine: BESS is now explicitly framed as 'virtual transmission' that insulates the company from transmission grid delays, adding a new strategic dimension.
- Execution discipline and operational excellence: Technology, digitization and advanced analytics are highlighted as driving strong asset availability and operational performance, validated by the industry-leading EBITDA margins.
- Transmission curtailment headwinds abating: Management reframed the delay not as a setback but as a catalyst for BESS acceleration, repositioning battery storage as the primary near-term solution for curtailment.
- Evaluating future gigascale sites: Management mentions Rajasthan as an additional state being evaluated for future capacity, maintaining the long-term optionality narrative alongside Khavda.
- India’s renewable energy demand trajectory intact: More specific and higher statistics were cited (308 GW vs 283 GW previously), reinforcing the bullish macro backdrop.
- Interest rate resilience via fixed-rate debt and rating upgrades: This emerged as a prominent new supporting pillar directly in response to investor concerns about the interest rate cycle, demonstrating strong insulation.
Operational commentary
- Commissioned 3 GWh of BESS at Khavda during Q2 FY27, expanding total operational storage to 6.6 GWh (>50% of India's operational BESS).
- Accelerating BESS rollout as 'virtual transmission' to absorb solar/wind generation during peak hours and mitigate grid curtailment bottlenecks at Khavda.
- Phase 3 Khavda 7 GW evacuation line commissioning delayed by ROW issues from Q3 FY27 to Q4 FY27; AGEL has prepped Balance of System (BoS) to install modules rapidly once grid corridor opens.
- Maiden 500 MW pump storage project (PSP) at Chitravathi is progressing towards completion by end of FY27.
- SPV AGE23L (~15% of AGEL EBITDA) upgraded 7 notches over 5 years to AAA rating, reducing interest cost from 10-11% to 8.4% (further 20-25 bps benefit expected).
Analyst Q&A
Q. What is the status of transmission asset commissioning in Khavda and the expected timeline?
Phase 3 7 GW line is now expected in Q4 FY27 (delayed from Q3) due to Right-of-Way issues; AGEL is monitoring closely and pre-building BoS infrastructure to install modules immediately once ready.
Q. How do take-or-pay and curtailment payment mechanisms work under private PPAs like AESL?
If power is scheduled on a 15-minute block and procurer or grid asks to back down, AGEL receives deemed generation payment. However, if power cannot be scheduled due to lack of corridor, procurer does not pay.
Q. How is the company insulated from rising global and domestic interest rate yields?
72-73% of loans are fixed-rate for 3-5 years, 70% debt is rupee-denominated, and 100% of USD principal/interest is fully hedged; operating assets moving from BBB to AA/AAA provide regular 20-50 bps spread reductions.
Q. What exact proportion of the 10 GWh BESS capacity will be allocated to AESL versus other third parties?
Management reiterated that 3.5 GWh is already tied up with AESL, and while open to any counterparty meeting AA+ rating and 13-14% ROA criteria, the exact future split is still in process of being finalized.
Research and educational content only. Not investment advice.